How Biden's support of Israel could cost him the election in 2024

President Joe Biden’s reelection prospects could be tied to how Democrats — in particular progressives — and Arab and Muslim Americans view his performance during and after the Israel-Gaza war that erupted on Oct. 7.

While Arabs and Muslims in this country have all along been supportive of Palestinians, mainstream Democrats have become more sympathetic to Palestinians than Israelis only over the past decade.

These voters have been angered by Biden’s seemingly one-sided support of Israel and his refusal to call for a permanent ceasefire in the fighting between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

The majority of those supported Biden’s presidential bid in 2020.  

Biden broke his promises about Israel

Unlike successive presidents since Richard Nixon, Biden opted to deprioritize U.S. efforts to broker a broad and lasting peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians when he came into office.

His primary concerns were China and the Russia-Ukraine war. In the Middle East, he pushed for Arab-Israeli naturalization, primarily Israeli-Saudi ties. 

Biden did not appoint a special envoy for Middle East peace. He reneged on his campaign promise to reopen the U.S. consulate in East Jerusalem and the PLO mission in Washington.

Arizona Dems want a ceasefire?That's absurd

Furthermore, he did not reinstate a State Department legal opinion — canceled by then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo — declaring Israeli settlements in the West Bank to be illegal.

In an opinion piece published in the Washington Post on Nov. 18, the president defended his support of Israel during its relentless carpet-bombing campaign of Gaza between Oct. 7 and Nov. 24, when the first “pause” in hostilities was announced.

He writes, “We firmly stand with the Israeli people as they defend themselves against the murderous nihilism of Hamas.”  

Is he buying time to finish off Hamas?

While he acknowledges the plight of Gazans — “I, too, am heartbroken by the images out of Gaza and the deaths of many thousands of civilians, including children” — he persisted in rejecting worldwide calls for a ceasefire.

Biden remained unapologetic in his defense of Israel.

He wrote, “As long as Hamas clings to its ideology of destruction, a cease-fire is not peace.” 

It is as though he was buying Israel time to finish off Hamas at the unbearable expense of all the death and destruction that has occurred in Gaza and its people since Oct. 7.  

According to Euro-Med Human Rights Watch, 20,031 Palestinians were killed between Oct. 7 and Nov. 24 — 18,460 or 92% of those killed were civilians — 8,176 were children and 4,112 were women.

For reference, the war in Ukraine recorded 9,164 civilian deaths so far in 20 months of fighting.

Here lies the serious problem that Biden could face in his reelection bid in 2024.

A Gallup poll conducted in February confirmed that for the first time, more Democrats sympathize with Palestinians (49%) than sympathize with Israelis (38%). The 49% is more than double the 23% who sympathized with Palestinians in 2014. 

Biden cannot lose Muslims, progressives

Based on an analysis by the Washington Post, “Biden’s handling of the war threatens to diminish enthusiasm for him among young voters ahead of the 2024 election.”

These are Gen Z (born between 1997 and 2012) and millennial voters (born between 1981 and 1986). If we are to combine those voters with Arab- and Muslim-American voters as well as progressives, Biden could lose his reelection bid in 2024. 

Another survey from Democratic pollster Lake Research Partners found “just 16% of Arab and Muslim Democrats in the key swing state of Michigan would vote for Biden if the 2024 election were held today.”

If this exodus of support for Biden persists, it would threaten “Biden’s chances in key swing states where he won by slim margins.”  

A recent poll showed that public support for Biden vs. Trump runs at 44% vs. 42% — within the margin of error. However, we all know that delegate numbers matter more than overall votes. 

If Biden loses swing states, he could win the majority vote yet lose the presidency.  

Several developments could turn the tide for Biden among these skeptical voters. Chief among them is a complete cessation of Israeli attacks on Gaza and the West Bank, and the convening of an immediate peace conference with the two-state solution as a significant item on its agenda.  

Anything short of these events could harden the opposition to Biden among Arab and Muslim Americans, young Democrats and progressives in 2024, and his prospects for reelection could be doomed.

Bishara A. Bahbah, a Valley resident, has been writing for The Arizona Republic since 2000. He taught at Harvard and was the associate director of Harvard’s Middle East Institute. He is the former vice president of the U.S. Palestine Council. Reach him at bisharabahbah@yahoo.com.